Current:Home > reviewsAs Solar and Wind Prices Fall, Coal’s Future is Fading Fast, BNEF Says -Golden Summit Finance
As Solar and Wind Prices Fall, Coal’s Future is Fading Fast, BNEF Says
View
Date:2025-04-12 17:24:02
Coal is dying, and total global greenhouse gas emissions from electrical generation will peak in 2026, according to a bullish report released Thursday by respected independent energy consultants.
Driven by plummeting solar and wind power prices, renewable energy projects are on the march worldwide. Of the $10.2 trillion the world will invest in new power generating technology from now until 2040, a stunning three-quarters will be in renewable energy, the report forecasts. As a result, wind and solar will jump to 34 percent of electricity generation worldwide by 2040, compared with just 5 percent now, the report says.
“This year’s report suggests that the greening of the world’s electricity system is unstoppable,” said Seb Henbest, lead author of the New Energy Outlook forecast. The report is published annually by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), an independent energy research firm, and is based on eight months of analysis and extensive market modeling.
This year’s report significantly raises BNEF’s estimates for the speed of the global greening of energy.
For example, BNEF expects India’s emissions will be 44 percent lower by 2040 than it estimated in 2016. However, it is important to note that, even at this advanced pace, the transition is not yet happening fast enough to keep the average temperature of the planet from rising by 2 degrees Celsius, the internationally agreed limit. “A further $5.3 trillion investment” in zero-carbon capacity is needed for that, the report says.
Yet, there is some hope that the report may still be underplaying the pace of transition to green energy. That’s because the analysis is based purely on announced projects in each country and assumes that current subsidies will expire and that energy policies around the world will remain on their current bearing. It is possible in the United States that market conditions for renewable energy could improve in the future. For example, wind subsidies, which are popular even among Republicans, may be renewed.
The report directly addresses concerns that the Trump administration seems determined to preserve coal. The authors argue that the effort will fail—coal’s prices will be so uncompetitive that coal-fired power will drop by 51 percent by 2040, they say.
Natural gas, which is cheap in the U.S., will continue to grow alongside renewables, though, and slow the U.S. transition away from fossil fuels compared with other countries. BNEF predicts renewable energy will reach 74 percent penetration in Germany by 2040, 55 percent in China and 49 percent in India, but only 38 percent in the U.S.
Around the world, solar has become a formidable opponent to coal, BNEF said. That’s because the price of solar, which already costs roughly one-fourth of what it did in 2009, is forecast to drop another 66 percent by 2040. “Solar is already at least as cheap as coal in Germany, Australia, the U.S., Spain and Italy,” BNEF said. “By 2021, it will be cheaper than coal in China, India, Mexico, the U.K. and Brazil, as well.”
Coal power generation in China has been growing but will reach a peak in 2026, the report says. Already, many planned coal plants are being cancelled.
Wind costs are also dropping fast. Offshore wind costs are falling faster than onshore and are expected to skid 71 percent by 2040. Land-based wind energy, which has already dropped by 30 percent in the last eight years, will continue to fall by 47 percent by 2040, the report says.
The BNEF report also forecasts that:
- Batteries will grow and boost the solar industry: the lithium-ion battery market will be worth at least $239 billion by 2040. The cost of lithium-ion batteries will be down 73 percent by 2030. Utilities will use batteries to lessen their reliance on natural gas to provide power during evening peak demand. Households and businesses will also increase their use of batteries and will account for 57 percent of storage worldwide by 2040.
- Electric vehicles will become more popular and will help balance peak demand on the grid. EVs will recharge when renewable energy sources are generating power and wholesale prices are low, thus helping the system adapt to intermittent solar and wind.
- Homeowners’ love of solar will continue to grow. By 2040, rooftop solar will account for as much as 24 percent of electricity in Australia, 20 percent in Brazil, 15 percent in Germany, 12 percent in Japan, and 5 percent in the U.S. and India.
veryGood! (6523)
Related
- Krispy Kreme offers a free dozen Grinch green doughnuts: When to get the deal
- Chemical firms to pay $110 million to Ohio to settle claims over releases of ‘forever chemicals’
- Maui officials on standby to stop heavy rains from sending ash into storm drains
- Democrat Liz Whitmer Gereghty ends run for NY’s 17th Congressional District, endorses Mondaire Jones
- Taylor Swift Eras Archive site launches on singer's 35th birthday. What is it?
- In Venezuela, harmful oil spills are mounting as the country ramps up production
- When stars are on stage, this designer makes it personal for each fan in the stadium
- Americans need an extra $11,400 today just to afford the basics
- 'Squid Game' without subtitles? Duolingo, Netflix encourage fans to learn Korean
- Iowa teen believed to be early victim of California serial killer identified after 49 years
Ranking
- Will the 'Yellowstone' finale be the last episode? What we know about Season 6, spinoffs
- Jonathan Majors' domestic violence trial to begin: What to know about actor's charges
- Senate Majority Leader Schumer warns that antisemitism is on the rise as he pushes for Israel aid
- US Navy releases underwater footage of plane that overshot a runway floating above Hawaii reef
- A White House order claims to end 'censorship.' What does that mean?
- Mavericks likely will end up in the hands of one of Las Vegas’ most powerful families
- Chemical firms to pay $110 million to Ohio to settle claims over releases of ‘forever chemicals’
- Tesla releases the Cybertruck this week. Here's what to know.
Recommendation
Federal court filings allege official committed perjury in lawsuit tied to Louisiana grain terminal
NASCAR inks media rights deals with Fox, NBC, Amazon and Warner Bros. What we know
K9 trainer loses 17 dogs in house fire on Thanksgiving Day; community raises money
Finland closes last crossing point with Russia, sealing off entire border as tensions rise
San Francisco names street for Associated Press photographer who captured the iconic Iwo Jima photo
Maui officials on standby to stop heavy rains from sending ash into storm drains
Democrat Liz Whitmer Gereghty ends run for NY’s 17th Congressional District, endorses Mondaire Jones
Barcelona may need water shipped in during a record drought in northeast Spain, authorities say